Research from the blockchain analytics firm Allium reveals that wallets linked to the U.S. engaged in political contracts on Polymarket, amounting to an impressive $571 million over the past year.
This figure highlights a surprising trend: despite restrictions that prevent American users from accessing the platform, U.S.-linked wallets dominated trading. Allium pointed out that Americans are particularly interested in markets pertaining to foreign conflicts, which are not available on regulated U.S. betting platforms.
U.S. Users Defy Restrictions
The statistics indicate that U.S. users have not been deterred by Polymarket’s attempt to block access. According to Allium, American traders have found ways to circumvent these limitations, using cryptocurrency wallets, stablecoins, and various methods to mask their locations.
This phenomenon places additional pressure on Polymarket, as it is currently under scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and heightened global regulatory focus.
Political Market Dynamics
The analysis shows that U.S. wallets now account for the greatest share of activity on Polymarket, surpassing even Hong Kong, which recorded $422 million in transactions. Interestingly, U.S.-linked traders appear to diverge from the general Polymarket user base. For example, geopolitical events constitute 46% of trades made by U.S. users, while only 36% of total platform trades fall in this category.
- U.S. political contract volume: 16%
- Election contracts overall on Polymarket: 32%
This data suggests a stronger preference among U.S. traders for markets related to international conflicts over domestic elections. Notably, the most significant contract involved whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit, exemplifying the unusual interests of these traders.
Regulatory Landscape Challenges
The current context is particularly challenging as the CFTC has launched an extensive investigation into Polymarket, spurred by inquiries from U.S. Senators regarding potential misleading advertising and user protection issues. Such scrutiny reflects growing concerns over the legality of prediction markets.
South Korea has also raised alarms, examining Polymarket amid gambling regulations, while Wisconsin recently engaged in legal battles with various prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Coinbase, alleging that their contracts resemble unlicensed gambling.
The increasing interest in offshore markets underscores a gap in access to foreign conflict contracts that remain limited within regulated U.S. channels.
