A Polymarket user identified as “coldsway” has suffered staggering losses amounting to $11.6 million through bets on the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup, managing to see only four out of 15 bets return any profit. Remarkably, these losses were incurred in just a span of ten days.
Analysis from Polymarket indicates that coldsway achieved a win rate of merely 26.7%. While the trader made $4.23 million from the four successful wagers, the total losses soared to $15.86 million across 11 unsuccessful bets.
A Series of Disappointing Favorites
The most significant loss was attributed to a monumental $4.9 million bet against Morocco in their match on July 4. That bet was lost entirely, and additional losses included $3.1 million wagered against Canada, as well as setbacks tied to Portugal, Belgium, and Spain.
Assessing the Wreckage of Coldsway’s Bets
The four successful trades stemmed from smaller, contrarian bets. Notably, a wager on a draw between Australia and Egypt yielded over $1.1 million, while a similar bet on Ghana versus Colombia returned about the same amount. This trend highlights a larger pattern of losses throughout the tournament, as Polymarket's World Cup markets have seen billions in trading volume since the group stage commenced. Bets on favored teams have continually fallen short, particularly when underdogs managed to secure draws or shocking victories.
Others Encountering Similar Misfortunes
Coldsway is not alone in experiencing these types of financial blows during the tournament. Another trader, who operates under the pseudonym FlickRaw, reported a loss of approximately $4.2 million in less than a day in mid-June. FlickRaw initially placed a bet of $2.7 million on the Netherlands to defeat Japan, but a last-minute equalizer led to a 2-2 draw, wiping out the bet. The following day, a $1.5 million wager on Belgium against Egypt also ended in disappointment with another draw.
In a separate incident, a bet of around $1 million against Spain backfired when Cape Verde held the European champions to a scoreless draw. This resulted in a substantial profit for traders betting against Spain.
As the tournament continues into the knockout rounds, coldsway’s account remains active, leaving potential for further changes in its financial standing based on the outcomes of future matches. The chance of recovering from these heavy losses hinges on how the games unfold.
