The price of Pi Coin (PI) has experienced a decline of over 6% in the last week, continuing a downward trend that sees it down a staggering 96% from its all-time high reached earlier last year. However, recent metrics tracking both institutional and retail investor behavior reveal a potential shift in sentiment.
Institutional Interest Grows Despite Price Fall
On the 8-hour price chart, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which serves as an indicator of buying and selling pressure from major wallets, has risen to 0.13. This increase occurred between June 21 and July 6, during a period when the Pi Coin price continued to decline. This discrepancy between price action and the CMF signals a bullish divergence indicating that larger wallets may be capitalizing on the dip, possibly supported by a new product launch.
A similar bullish signal was detected in late May when the price rose by approximately 8% shortly after. Recent data from major exchanges show that Pi Coin experienced net outflows, indicating that more coins are moving off exchanges than entering them. The combined outflow volume was around negative 260,000 PI, with exchanges like OKX, Gate.io, and Kraken leading this trend. When coins are withdrawn from exchanges, the available sellable supply diminishes, suggesting buyers dominate the market.
Indicators Suggest a Potential Turnaround
Despite this positivity, price movements must align with broader trends for any real progression. On the two-day chart, Pi Coin remains within a downward channel that has constrained its price since late April. Attempts to break above this channel have been unsuccessful, although trading above the channel’s midline provides hope for a potential recovery.
The volume of selling presents a softer narrative. Since June 28, the volume of coins sold has been gradually decreasing, indicating sellers may be losing strength. This decline in selling volume could suggest that Pi Coin's drop from its peak is nearing a bottom.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers added insight. Between June 4 and June 30, while the price formed lower lows, the RSI recorded higher lows, exemplifying a bullish divergence often seen before trend reversals occur.
Key Price Levels to Monitor in July
For July, traders should focus on critical price levels. The first significant test will be at $0.112, followed closely by the record low of $0.111 that represents the ongoing 96% decline. Sustaining these levels could confirm the bullish case outlined earlier.
A breakthrough at $0.119 would elevate Pi Coin out of the falling channel for the first time since April, opening up possibilities towards $0.134 and $0.139. Current flow and momentum indicators suggest that a bounce of at least 5% from the current levels is plausible.
The narrative remains complex, but among the fluctuations lies potential for positive movement.
