Over 45,000 Polymarket Contracts Show No Trading Activity, Analysis Reveals
A recent analysis by CNBC has revealed that approximately 70% of all completed markets on Polymarket have recorded trading volumes of less than $10,000 from 2021 until the end of May 2026. This observation comes at a time when prediction markets are experiencing heightened activity, particularly driven by the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup. This disparity highlights that a limited number of prominent contracts are responsible for the majority of the trading volume, while a vast number of other markets remain largely untouched.
Insights on Polymarket's Trading Volume
The analysis sourced closed-market data via Polymarket’s Gamma API, which provides notional volume statistics for trades on both sides. The data illustrated a significant imbalance in market activity.
According to the findings, fewer than 10% of closed markets managed to generate trading volumes between $100,000 and $1 million. Alarmingly, over 45,000 markets, accounting for nearly 5% of all closed markets, recorded zero activity.
The Role of Bots in Market Dynamics
Interestingly, the analysis indicates that bots play a significant role, particularly in markets with lower trading volumes. Joshua Della Vedova, a business professor at the University of San Diego, reported that more than 80% of the activity in markets under $10,000 was attributed to these automated systems. He classified these bots as wallets that engage in over 50 trades each day or surpass a total of 1,000 trades. His research estimates that bots earned approximately $1.2 million within markets generating under $10,000, while they accumulated about $50.5 million in markets ranging from $1 million to $10 million.
“Bots are generating profits across various market segments,” stated Della Vedova. “They earn per transaction which motivates them to engage in larger markets, but their activities cover the entire spectrum.”
World Cup Impact on Prediction Markets
The context of thin market activity starkly contrasts with the explosive growth observed in prediction markets. Data from CryptoRank indicates a significant surge in weekly World Cup trading volumes, which escalated from $65 million on June 1 to an impressive $5.4 billion by June 29. The highest recorded volume was noted at $5.6 billion during the week of June 22, primarily driven by Kalshi, highlighting how major sports events can rapidly boost demand for prediction trading.
Despite the overall market expansion, the trend reveals that a considerable amount of capital remains concentrated in a select number of high-stakes contracts, with tens of thousands of markets experiencing minimal engagement. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have been contacted by BeInCrypto for further comment on these findings.
