Bitcoin's recent performance has put many investors in a tough spot, especially those who purchased the cryptocurrency above $107,000. Current market dynamics suggest that this situation might actually indicate we are nearing the end of the ongoing bear market.

According to insights from Glassnode, the accumulation of realized losses among Bitcoin holders is reflecting a pattern reminiscent of previous market bottoms observed in 2018, 2020, and 2022. At present, the critical price battleground is around $69,000, which was the all-time high before Bitcoin's surge past that level.

Impact of the $107K to $118K Zone

During Bitcoin's impressive rise to over $126,000 in 2025, a substantial number of buyers entered the market, accumulating coins between $107,000 and $118,000. However, as the market corrected in early 2026, these investors found themselves underwater, leading to significant realized losses. Currently, long-term holders account for about 43% of total on-chain losses, with daily losses peaking at an alarming $280 million, the highest since December 2022, shortly after the FTX collapse.

Extended Periods Below Key Metrics

Since mid-July 2026, Bitcoin has been trading below two essential cost-basis benchmarks. The True Market Mean hovers between $76,600 and $79,000, while the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is around $72,000. This prolonged stay below the True Market Mean, lasting nearly five months, marks one of the longest stretches of “deep value” trading in Bitcoin's history. Historical trends indicate that such periods often persist for more than six months before any significant recovery signals appear.

Potential Movements Below $69K

The $69,000 level is currently the focal point of market activity during this capitulation phase. If Bitcoin fails to maintain this price, the next area for potential support could be the Realized Price, which ranges from $53,000 to $55,000. This scenario is not unprecedented; during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin dipped below its Realized Price before initiating a recovery that eventually pushed it beyond $100,000.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.