On July 2, Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs experienced a significant inflow of $221.7 million, marking their first positive day in ten sessions. This occurred amid a backdrop of heightened whale buying that has been accumulating since late June. That single surge of green comes after approximately $2.7 billion was withdrawn from these funds due to institutional sell-offs, while on-chain buyers have consistently absorbed that excess supply.
Whales Dominating the Market
Large investors, commonly known as whales, have demonstrated a bullish sentiment well in advance of any trends on Wall Street. According to CryptoQuant’s Spot Average Order Size, which tracks average trade sizes to determine when large players dominate, substantial whale orders have been logged daily since June 30. These purchases persisted through July 5, with tracked orders including one sizable acquisition of around 857 BTC at a price near $63,600. The significant order volume indicates that these transactions, rather than retail trades, have influenced the price movements more profoundly.
Institutional Trends and ETF Reactions
While whales have been active, institutions exhibited a contrasting trend by pulling money out from ETFs over a span of ten consecutive sessions. Data from SoSoValue reveals that nearly $2.7 billion was withdrawn before July 2, when the inflow of $221.72 million disrupted this outflow streak. Major players such as Fidelity's FBTC led the recovery with an impressive return of $165.96 million, while ARKB contributed $91.84 million. However, BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest fund in the market, still experienced a $40.43 million outflow.
The turnaround in institutional interest coincided with underwhelming payroll data for June, where only 57,000 jobs were added, falling short of the expected 114,000. This report helped to reassure investors, even though June remains the worst month recorded for these funds, with year-to-date flows still negative, totaling around $5.4 billion. One positive session doesn’t erase past losses.
Looking Ahead: On-Chain Data Insights
Now, both whales and institutions may be examining the same on-chain data. Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) provides insights into the price levels at which current Bitcoin supply last changed hands. These price clusters are vital as holders often decide to sell during price recoveries to minimize losses. The current conditions suggest that there may be renewed collaboration between these two market factions.
