Polymarket bettors have slashed the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year to an unprecedented low. Currently, traders believe there is only a 32% chance the legislation will be enacted by December 31, 2026. This marks a significant drop of around 30 percentage points since the market's launch in January.
The ongoing delay stems from unresolved Senate negotiations, primarily focused on obtaining Democratic support. A bipartisan ethics provision has emerged as one of the major hurdles to advancing the bill. Industry leaders have pushed Congress to finalize the legislation, arguing that establishing clear jurisdiction for the SEC and CFTC would mitigate regulatory uncertainty and encourage crypto activity to take place within the U.S.
At its peak on February 19, the odds of the Clarity Act passing soared to 82%. However, since early May, as the legislative calendar tightened, skepticism about securing the necessary bipartisan support has risen. Despite ongoing discussions among lawmakers, there has been little progress on key amendments.
Recently, an updated legislative text was anticipated, though it has not yet garnered Democratic backing. President Donald Trump was scheduled to meet with Senate Republicans to discuss the bill, but the lack of clarity on ethics provisions remains a significant sticking point. Senator Ruben Gallego, a Democrat from Arizona, has stated he will not support the legislation on the Senate floor without bipartisan ethics language, echoing concerns from other Democrats regarding potential conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets.
If the Clarity Act is passed, it would create a federal framework for digital asset markets, delineating assets regulated by the SEC from those under the jurisdiction of the CFTC. Proponents argue this would replace years of regulatory ambiguity with clear rules established by Congress.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
