The CLARITY Act’s approval odds dipped sharply to 31% after the release of its revised text was postponed until next week, deepening uncertainty around the legislation. The bill, aimed at shaping crypto regulation, hit a snag when President Donald Trump’s White House meeting with Senate Republicans didn’t yield the promised updated draft.
Traders on Polymarket quickly reacted, pushing the chance of the Act passing both chambers and receiving presidential approval in 2026 down to 31%, though later it ticked up slightly to 32%. This shift reflects the growing skepticism about whether the bill can clear the Senate before its August 10 recess.
Republicans lack a clear path to the 60 votes required to advance the bill, as Democrats continue to oppose the current ethics provisions concerning elected officials and digital asset holdings. Senator Ruben Gallego criticized the Republican proposal as insufficient, pointing out its weak consumer protections and ethics safeguards. Democratic resistance remains firm, with party negotiators not having approved the White House's latest version, according to reports.
Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis had initially expected the revised text to follow shortly after Trump’s briefing, but no firm delivery date was given after the White House talks concluded. The compressed legislative calendar leaves little time to secure bipartisan support before the Senate’s state work period begins on August 10.
The unfolding situation highlights the difficulty of advancing significant crypto regulation in a polarized Senate. The CLARITY Act’s future depends heavily on whether compromises can be reached on ethics rules and consumer protections. The bill’s delay contrasts with fast-moving markets, such as the recent turmoil seen in digital assets like BONK after a treasury hack sparked a sell-off.
